Mikie Sherrill: The Jim Courter of 2025
A month ago, I authored a column explaining the substantial experience advantages, both governmental and political, Republican frontrunner Jack Ciattarelli has over Democratic frontrunner Mikie Sherrill in this year’s New Jersey gubernatorial election. In the column, I did not discuss the remarkable political resemblance between Mikie and a former gubernatorial candidate who lost by an overwhelming landslide.
That candidate was Jim Courter, the Republican nominee for governor in 1989. Like Sherrill, Courter was a member of the US House of Representatives. Like Sherrill, Courter had developed expertise in national defense issues, which was even more impressive than Mikie's. This expertise resulted in President George H.W. Bush appointing him chair of the Base Closure and Realignment Commission, where he served with distinction from 1991 until 1993.
Like Sherrill, Courter had a lacuna in his record: a lack of local and state political and governmental policymaking experience. This resulted in his political evisceration, as Democrat Jim Florio defeated him in the 1989 gubernatorial election. Florio’s state and local experience was comprehensive and distinguished, especially in the environmental arena.
In 2025, we are likely to witness a rerun of the 1989 Jim Courter debacle, this one involving Mikie Sherrill. Like Courter, Sherrill has an embarrassing paucity of political and governmental experience at the local and state levels. In a race against Jack Ciattarelli, who has a wealth of such local and state governmental and political experience, this is likely to be fatal, especially in debate. Like Courter, Sherrill faces the prospect of a career-ending defeat regarding statewide elective office.
There is only one chance that Sherrill would have against Ciattarelli, namely the Donald Trump albatross that Jack must remove. Ciattarelli has supported Trump in the last two presidential contests, and Trump is already experiencing a massive job performance disapproval and personal favorability decline in the polls. The Trump albatross has the potential of dragging down to defeat any NJGOP candidate, even one as qualified and competent as Ciattarelli:
With a disciplined campaign, Ciattarelli will remove the Trump albatross, provided he fulfills the following four tasks:
He should select GOP State Senator Holly Schepisi as his lieutenant governor running mate. Schepisi is extremely popular in Bergen County, and a Ciattarelli victory in Bergen would almost ensure his gubernatorial victory.
A core message for Ciattarelli should be: I supported Trump out of party loyalty, but I will not govern like Trump. Then, he should emphasize issues where he disagrees with Trump.
Ciattarelli has a superb record on Israel and Jewish community issues. By contrast, as I pointed out in my previous column, Sherrill has the worst record on Israel of any New Jersey House of Representatives delegation member. A Democratic statewide candidate who performs poorly in the Jewish community is headed for defeat, and so is Sherrill.
Mikie Sherrill is not a racist. Culturally, however, she is very unlikely to connect well with the New Jersey African-American community. Her Congressional district has a very small African-American population. As I have noted, not entirely in jocular fashion, Mikie is so white culturally that her picture would fit perfectly on a box of Ivory Snow. An intense primary battle between her and Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is likely to further alienate her from New Jersey African-American voters. Jack Ciattarelli communicates well with ethnic and racial minorities, and a strong showing by him among African-American voters will seal Sherrill’s defeat.
Mikie Sherrill is the frontrunner in the Democratic primary for one reason only: the support she has received from the New Jersey Democratic establishment, which includes party chairs and fundraisers. The Democratic Party will be far better off against Jack Ciattarelli if the grassroots Democratic voters ignore the establishment in the primary and nominate a candidate other than Mikie Sherrill, who would be the Jim Courter of 2025.
Alan J. Steinberg of Highland Park served as regional administrator of Region 2 EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and as executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He graduated from Northwestern University and the University of Wisconsin Law School and received a Master of Law in Taxation degree from Temple University Beasley School of Law. Alan served as a Lieutenant in the US Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps. He is the host of the Dynamic Political Centrism podcast, published on Substack.