Andy Kim’s Calibrated Populist Progressive Message:

1) Activist, but not Socialist; 2) Bold, yet Pragmatic; 3) Intellectual, yet Comprehensible

Last week’s FDU Poll of the forthcoming New Jersey US Senate Democratic Primary sparked significant debate among the New Jersey political cognoscenti.  Specifically, the issue is whether the current frontrunner, Congressman Andy Kim, can maintain the current double-digit lead, 32 to 20 with 31 percent undecided he enjoys over New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy.  

The FDU Poll, conducted by the remarkable Jersey political wunderkind Dan Cassino was recently recognized in Nate Silver’s 538 rating of polls as one of America’s top-tier polls.  Its credibility is beyond challenge, and the already incredibly enthusiastic volunteers of Andy Kim continue to rejoice over the poll results.

Have no fear, say the Murphy campaign managers and statewide Democratic leaders who support the First Lady.  Tammy Murphy will appear in the County Democratic Organization endorsed ballot column line (hereinafter, “the line”) in virtually each of the Garden State’s 21 counties.  

Indeed, a statewide primary candidate’s line position in most counties makes him or her virtually unbeatable.  This was extensively documented by a recent study by the eminent professor, Dr. Julia Sass Rubin at the Edward J. Bloustein School of Planning and Public Policy at Rutgers University.  

Yet there has been a primary in recent New Jersey history that demonstrated how a candidate with a compelling message could overcome the disadvantage of not being positioned on “the line.”  I speak of former Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler, who defeated the late Congressman Bob Franks in the 2001 Republican gubernatorial primary by a wide margin, even though Franks held the line position in 20 of the 21 counties.  The Schundler message was a populist yet remarkably non-grievance, non-racist message that Bret was a reformer who was progressive in his principles yet conservative in his values.

Likewise, in the forthcoming primary, Andy Kim has what appears to be a superbly crafted and calibrated populist progressive message that accounts for his current lead.  This message has three elements describing Andy:  1) Activist, but not Socialist; 2) Bold, yet Pragmatic; 3) Intellectual, yet Comprehensible.

This message is in a political sense both brilliant and compelling.  The first element satisfies the desire of most grassroots Democrats who want a more activist progressive issue agenda yet wish to avoid the Socialism and extremism of the AOC Democrats.  The second speaks to the desire of Democrats for leaders who will courageously pursue this agenda yet remain aware of political realities.  The third emphasizes Andy’s unsurpassed intellectualism and his uncanny ability to communicate his thoughts and programs in grassroots language.

Will the Kim message overcome the Tammy Murphy party organizational support and her “line” position?  I will not at this point make a prediction, but I would not bet against it.

Alan J. Steinberg of Highland Park, New Jersey, served as regional administrator of Region 2 U.S. EPA during the administration of former President George W. Bush and executive director of the New Jersey Meadowlands Commission. He is a graduate of Northwestern University and the University of Wisconsin Law School.